The 2024 Bitcoin halving is simply two days away, and there are already various expectations of what may occur to the BTC value as soon as the occasion is accomplished. One solution to get an thought of the way it might play out for the Bitcoin value, although, is thru historic information and the way the cryptocurrency has carried out at occasions like these.
Bitcoin Value Tendencies For Earlier Halvings
There have been three halvings thus far since Bitcoin was first launched in 2009 and with each, Bitcoin has demonstrated varied reactions to the occasion. The primary halving passed off on November 28, 2012, the second occurred on July 9, 2016, and the final one was on Could 11, 2020.
For the aim of this report, solely the final two halving can be referenced provided that adoption had started to climb on the time that these two occurred. The 2016 halving occurred when Bitcoin was buying and selling round $650, however within the weeks following the halving, the BTC value would drop one other 30%, reaching as little as $460 earlier than climbing again up as soon as once more.
BTC value crashed 30% post-halving in 2016 | Supply: Tradingview.com
Then, throughout the 2020 halving, the BTC value was trending just below $10,000, and following the halving, would see a drop in value as nicely. Nevertheless, this drop was not as important because the 2016 drop, with the BTC value solely falling round 15% throughout this time.
BTC value crashed 15% post-halving in 2020 | Supply: Tradingview.com
This has shaped fairly a pattern with the halving, the place the Bitcoin value falls after the occasion, which is predicted to be bullish. Due to this fact, if this pattern continues, then BTC might see a pointy drop in value regardless of the expectation that the halving can be bullish for value.
Nevertheless, you will need to take into account that subsequent halvings have seen a decrease post-halving crash in comparison with their predecessors. So, if this holds this yr, Bitcoin might nonetheless be a crash however to a a lot lesser diploma. For instance, the 2020 post-halving crash was half of the 2016 post-halving crash, so holding this pattern, the crash this time round might solely be an round 7-8% crash.
BTC Deviates From Established Halving Tendencies
Whereas the historic information does recommend the place Bitcoin might be headed following the crash, additionally it is essential to notice that the digital asset has deviated from a variety of pre-halving traits. Certainly one of these deviations is the truth that the Bitcoin value hit a brand new all-time excessive earlier than the halving, one thing that has by no means occurred earlier than. This might recommend that there can be an entire deviation from these established traits, that means {that a} crash might not observe the halving in any case.
One other deviation is that the few weeks main as much as the final two Bitcoin halvings have been inexperienced. Nevertheless, in 2024, the final three weeks main as much as the halving have been pink because the BTC value has been in decline. This additionally lends credence to the truth that there is also a deviation from its post-halving traits.
One factor to remember although, is that the crypto market has all the time been unsure and Bitcoin has a behavior of doing what nobody anticipated. The Bitcoin Worry & Greed Index has seen a pull again from the acute greed territory, however it continues to stay in greed, which suggests buyers are nonetheless bullish. On this case, if Bitcoin have been to do the other of what’s anticipated, then it might observe the established pattern and crash again down.
BTC deviates from pre-halving pattern | Supply: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured picture from Adobe Inventory, chart from Tradingview.com
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